MY WORLD CUP PREDICT-O-METER

For my last blog before the World Cup kicks-off in earnest, I am going to attempt to predict the outcome - who will progress from their groups, and who will knock who out when it gets down to the last 16. I wouldn't take betting advice from these predictions if I were you!

GROUP A

France to win the group closely followed by Mexico. This looks a weak group so I may be wrong. This is not a strong France team, and they are lucky to be at the World Cup after their controversial play-off win over Republic of Ireland. Mexico, despite their lack of European experience, are versed in major tournaments and have qualified for the knock-out stages of every event since 1990. South Africa could still spring a surprise as hosts, and Uruguay have what looks like a strong looking strikeforce.

GROUP B

Argentina should walk this group. I would back Nigeria to join them as South Korea and Greece look woefully short on quality.

GROUP C

Despite concerns over many of their star players and the loss of captain Rio Ferdinand, I would back England to just pip USA to win the group.
Slovenia and Algeria will probably not threaten to qualify.

GROUP D

It is hard to bakc against Germany as group winners, so adpet are they at turning it on in major tournaments. However, I am going to change my original prediction as to who will follow them through. I originally said Ghana, but I am not going to plump for Serbia, mainly due to the injury sustained by Michael Essien. That's how important I think he is.

GROUP E

A strong Holland team should win this group comfortably. A solid Denmark should have too much ability and nous for Cameroon, but it will be close. Japan are unlikely to stand a chance.

GROUP F

World champions Italy fortuitously find themselves in an easy looking group. Even so New Zealand will be the whipping boys, as they don't look up to the task (despite their recent friendly win against Serbias). I think Slovakia will cause an upset and join Italy in the last 16, pipping perennial qualifiers Paraguay.

GROUP G

This one looks like a hard group to draw. Brazil should still qualify easily - after all, this time around they have the best defence in the tournament. The other spot will come down to the opening game between Ivory Coast and Portugal. I have a sneaky suspicion that, if Didier Drogba can regain full fitness, Cristiano Ronaldo et al may be surprised. This is not the vintage of Luis Figo, Rui Costa and Joao Pinto.

GROUP H

The final group will see European champions Spain qualify comfortably, hopefully (na din my opinion, probably) with the attacking Chile over a dour Switzerland side and an unprepared Honduras.


SECOND ROUND

Now we've dealt with the nitty gritty - in some ways the tournament really gets started in the knockout rounds.

GAME 1 - I'm going to put my neck on the line and say Nigeria will spring a major upset, and knock out 2006 France. Being on African soil will be an advantage, and it says something that France's best player is their keeper, Hugo Lloris.

GAME 2 - if my predictions are right, this should be England against Serbia. And this may be a close one, as Serbia are solid at the back. But I would pip England to just nick it. Liverpool fans will be especially interested, hoping to catch a limpse of their bosman free transfer who will be joining after the World Cup, playmaker Milan Jovanovic.

GAME 3 - so this will be Germany against the USA, in a repeat of the 2002 World Cup quarter-final which the Germans were fortuitous to come out on top in. Im going to go for another upset here - the Germans will miss captain Micahel Ballack, and this strong US team may be underestimated. Well we can dream can't we?!

GAME 4 - in a repeat of the 2006 second round clash (which saw one of the games, and goals, of the tournament), I would expect Argentina, if the likes of Lionel Messi, Carlos Tevez and Gonzalo Higuain are on form, to comfortably beat Mexico this time around.

GAME 5 - Holland against Slovakia looks like a very one-sided contest. The Slovakians will have been delighted to reach the second round on their World Cup debut, but this is where it will end.

GAME 6 - this could well be another lopsided encounter. In the all South American battle, expect Brazil to come out on top. But Chile may not disgrace themselves, and coach Marcelo Bielsa's attacking philosophy will keep Brazil's strong defence on its toes.

GAME 7 - Italy against Denmark looks like an intriguing game. Denmark were impressive in qualifying, and Italy are an ageing team. But I would expect this experience to just about win the day, but it may be close.

GAME 8 - in the final second round game, Spain should have no problems seeing off the Ivory Coast. Or their Iberian neighbours Portugal if they finish second in group G, for that matter.


QUARTER-FINALS

QF1 - well this looks like a tasty encounter, doesn't it? I'm going to go for Holland, as I've backed them to finally end years of underachievement. It will be close, but if their attacking trio of Wesley Sneijder, Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie are on form, that is a frightening prospect. But it is best to never write off Brazil!

QF2 - could this be the moment England finally reach just their second semi-final in an international tournament away from home? I think it could be. Having backed Nigeria to spring an upset against France in the second round, I think they will run out of steam here. But England wld do well not to underestimate their African opponents - think what almost happened with Cameroon in 1990!

QF3 - ditto quarter final two. I think USA, having shocked Germany, will run out of steam against the much fancied Argentina, who have so much strength in depth it's almost scary!

QF4 - the last quarter-final clash sees proably the best of the lot. World champions against European champions, Italy against Spain. Who's your money on? The way both teams are at the moment, I would have to say Spain. The experience of winning Euro 2008 will be crucial, as they cast aside their tag of perennial underachievers. Italy are ageing, and may struggle to cope with the pace ands skill of the likes of Xavi, Andres Iniesta, David Villa and Fernando Torres. Any team which can afford to leave Cesc Fabregas on the bench must have some ability!


SEMI-FINALS

SF1 - so we're down to the last four. And the first semi-final will unfortunately see England's run come to an end, against a slightly superior Holland. I hope I'm wrong, and football at the highest level often comes down to small margins. But I think the Dutch have more star quality, where England are over-reliant on Wayne Rooney. It remains to be seen who will be cast in the role of pantomine villain - a Robben dive, van Persie headbutt, a Rooney penalty miss, or the referee (the usual suspect)? Only time will tell!

SF2 - Argentina against Spain shouldn't be a bad second semi-final, and almost looks too close to call. I can see this going to extra-time and maybe penalties. I would back the European champions, because while they both match each other going forward, Argentina can't match the Spanish defence of Sergio Ramos, Gerard Pique, Carles Puyol and Joan Capdevilla.


FINAL - and so to the final, where an eighth country will lift the World Cup. But who get their hands on the Jules Rimet trophy for the first time, Holland or Spain. It should be a wonderful spectacle, featuring two of the most attacking and entertaining teams in world football. But I'm afraid I'm going to have to stick to my guns, and follow through with my original prediction - Holland to win the World Cup, which I suppose could be seen as an upset in some respects. All the Dutch need to work on is their consistency (refer to their Euro 2008 quarter-final defeat to Russia). Check this post again on July 12 to see just how wrong I have been!